Why revenue forecasts only become reliable through technical availability: Xenia Ritzkowsky talks about market trends, operational excellence and bankable hardware
2026 will be governed by economic reality: market forecasts, hardware investments and the choice of marketer are the decisive factors for success. Together with Xenia Ritzkowsky, Senior Consultant at enervis energy advisors GmbH, we analyze current developments in the storage market and identify the levers for profitable assets.
The new reality: the infrastructure bottleneck
When asked about the current status quo, Xenia Ritzkowsky paints a clear picture: “The industry has significantly more expertise today than it did at the beginning, but is struggling with more complex hurdles.” The biggest obstacle at the moment is the massive shortage of grid connections. In Germany, inquiries for several hundred gigawatts of storage capacity currently stand in contrast to an installed base of just 2.5 GW. The physical grid simply cannot cope with this discrepancy.
According to Ritzkowsky, two key trends have emerged to address this shortage.
- Flexible Connection Agreements (FCA): Grid operators are increasingly awarding connections with conditions such as power ramps (staged switching) or feed-in bans at peak times. Depending on how they are structured, this can have a significant impact on the profitability of the storage project: A feed-in ban blocks access to lucrative balancing power and deprives the storage facility of its necessary flexibility. Without clear regulatory requirements, this area currently still resembles a “Wild West”.
- Green Power Co-location: To avoid lengthy grid connection procedures, photovoltaics and storage are increasingly being combined at a common connection point. The advantage: the storage system uses the existing grid infrastructure of the generation plant. This model is often the only way to realize PV projects economically despite falling EEG remuneration by shifting energy to high-priced evening hours.
Revenue strategies: The focus is shifting to the spot market
In the past, many calculations were based on Frequency Containment Reserve (FCR). Currently, the focus is primarily on Automatic Frequency Restoration Reserves (aFRR). This stabilizes grid frequency, and providers are compensated for the energy they supply and the energy they are called upon to provide. However, the market is largely saturated and lacks depth. According to Ritzkowsky, the real future lies in the spot markets (day-ahead and intraday). “In the spot markets, storage facilities make money by charging low prices when they store energy and high prices when they release it. It sounds simple, but it’s complex because you have to estimate the timing and prices precisely,” Ritzkowsky explains.
A key effect comes into play here: Since fossil fuel power plants operate less frequently, they must spread their fixed costs over fewer operating hours. This drives up bid prices and consequently leads to price spikes during periods of scarcity. Storage facilities have the advantage here that they can react immediately to price signals without start-up times, provided the technology allows it. This is because the relevant revenues today are often concentrated within a few hours with extreme price peaks.
Technical availability: insuring your return on investment
As banks continue to classify battery storage systems as a riskier investment compared to wind or solar parks, the technical assessment is a central component of financing. Financiers are increasingly demanding reliable “low case” scenarios (conservative forecasts) and are examining the technical setup and experience with manufacturers very closely.
Ritzkowsky emphasizes two decisive factors for the long-term success of storage projects:
- The technology: Technical availability is one of the biggest levers for returns. The profitability of a storage facility is often decided on just a few days a year. An outage during these hours of extreme price peaks destroys a large part of the annual return. “The cheapest technology is therefore not always the best choice,” says Ritzkowsky.
- The marketer: He must be able to translate market changes and regulatory adjustments into trading strategies at short notice.
Conclusion: Protecting your investment through hardware expertise
The expert’s advice for newcomers is clear: the grid connection is the be-all and end-all. No further investment steps should be taken without a final contract. You should also seek advice on revenue prospects and the use of reliable hardware before starting a project. In a market that hardly forgives technical failures, the long-term reliability of the hardware determines bankability and the actual return on investment.
This is where NOVUM engineering comes in: Manufacturer-independent qualification and monitoring ensure technical availability — the prerequisite for any reliable revenue forecast. This turns the hardware from a black box into a calculable component of the business case.
Xenia Ritzkowsky is a Senior Consultant at the Berlin-based consultancy enervis energy advisors GmbH and an expert on battery storage systems in the German electricity market. Her focus is on the interface between technical modeling and economic strategy development.
Within the industry, she is responsible for complex topics such as the profitability assessment of storage facilities, co-location models and the analysis of marketing models on the spot market and for system services. She is a key contact for bankable revenue forecasts and leads specialized seminars on critical topics such as bankability, cannibalization effects, and financing aspects.
